After the fastest tightening cycle in a generation, fixed income investors are grappling with a new reality: inflation that may settle above pre-COVID norms, a looming fiscal reckoning as debt and issuance surge, and an increasingly fragmented geopolitical order that disrupts trade, capital flows and energy markets. This keynote will take a transatlantic perspective, highlighting where these forces are playing out differently across the US and the EU — and where their policy paths may sharply diverge. This opening macro keynote will connect those three forces directly to rates, curves, spreads and liquidity – asking what a world of higher real yields, larger term premia and episodic volatility really means for portfolio construction, trading strategy and cross-asset correlations over the next five years, and where today’s consensus could be most dangerously wrong on both sides of the Atlantic.